TY - BOOK ID - 11265973 TI - Irrational exuberance in the U.S. housing market : were evangelicals left behind? PY - 2009 SN - 1451916396 1462340644 9786612842788 1282842781 1451872046 1452720819 PB - [Washington, DC] : International Monetary Fund Research Dept., DB - UniCat KW - Business & Economics KW - Real Estate, Housing & Land Use KW - Housing KW - Evangelicalism. KW - Economics KW - Prices KW - Religious aspects KW - Christianity. KW - Christianity and economics KW - Evangelical religion KW - Protestantism, Evangelical KW - Evangelical Revival KW - Fundamentalism KW - Pietism KW - Protestantism KW - Financial Risk Management KW - Infrastructure KW - Insurance KW - Real Estate KW - Demography KW - Macroeconomics: Consumption KW - Saving KW - Wealth KW - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics: Housing Demand KW - Cultural Economics: Religion KW - Housing Supply and Markets KW - Demographic Economics: General KW - Economic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis KW - Financial Crises KW - Insurance Companies KW - Actuarial Studies KW - Property & real estate KW - Population & demography KW - Macroeconomics KW - Economic & financial crises & disasters KW - Insurance & actuarial studies KW - Housing prices KW - Population and demographics KW - Asset bubbles KW - National accounts KW - Financial crises KW - Financial institutions KW - Population KW - Saving and investment KW - United States UR - https://www.unicat.be/uniCat?func=search&query=sysid:11265973 AB - The recent housing bust has reignited interest in psychological theories of speculative excess (Shiller, 2007). I investigate this issue by identifying a segment of the U.S. population-evangelical protestants-that may be less prone to speculative motives, and uncover a significant negative relationship between their population share and house price volatility. Evangelicals' focus on Biblical prophecy could account for this difference, since it may enable them to interpret otherwise negative events as containing positive news, dampening the response of house prices to shocks. I provide evidence for this channel using a popular internet measure of "prophetic activity" and a 9/11 event study. I also analyze survey data covering religious beliefs and asset holding, and find that 'end times' beliefs are associated with a one-third decline in net worth, consistent with these beliefs providing a form of psychic insurance (Scheve and Stasavage, 2006a and 2006b) that reduces asset demand. ER -