TY - BOOK ID - 11259785 TI - Inflation in Tajikistan : Forecasting Analysis and Monetary Policy Challenges AU - Vtyurina, Svetlana. AU - Alturki, Fahad. AU - International Monetary Fund. PY - 2010 SN - 1451918666 9786612845260 1451962177 1282845268 1452720797 1462357776 PB - Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, DB - UniCat KW - Inflation (Finance) KW - Monetary policy KW - Monetary management KW - Economic policy KW - Currency boards KW - Money supply KW - Finance KW - Natural rate of unemployment KW - Econometrics KW - Foreign Exchange KW - Inflation KW - Money and Monetary Policy KW - Forecasting KW - Price Level KW - Deflation KW - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General KW - Forecasting and Other Model Applications KW - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models KW - Multiple Variables: General KW - Macroeconomics KW - Monetary economics KW - Currency KW - Foreign exchange KW - Economic Forecasting KW - Econometrics & economic statistics KW - Monetary base KW - Exchange rates KW - Economic forecasting KW - Vector error correction models KW - Prices KW - Econometric models KW - Tajikistan, Republic of UR - https://www.unicat.be/uniCat?func=search&query=sysid:11259785 AB - This paper attempts to explain short- and long-term dynamics of-and forecast-inflation in Tajikistan using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Autoregressive Moving Average Model (ARMA). By analyzing different transmission channels through the VECM, we were able to evaluate their relative dominance, magnitude, and speed of transition to the equilibrium price level, with the view of identifying those policy tools that will enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy. We found that excess supply of broad money is inflationary in both the short and long term. The dynamic analysis also demonstrates that the exchange rate and international inflation have a strong impact on local prices. Available monetary instruments, such as the refinancing rate, have proven to be ineffective. Therefore, the Tajik monetary authority could greatly benefit from enhancing its monetary instruments toolkit, including by developing the interest rate channel, to improve its monetary policy execution and to achieve stable inflationary conditions. ER -