TY - BOOK ID - 101237703 TI - The Us Federal Debt Outlook : Reading the Tea Leaves AU - Celasun, Oya. AU - Keim, Geoffrey. PY - 2010 SN - 1282845829 9786612845826 1451982682 PB - Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, DB - UniCat KW - Budget deficits KW - Banks and Banking KW - Budget planning and preparation KW - Budget Systems KW - Budget KW - Budgeting & financial management KW - Budgeting KW - Currency crises KW - Debt Management KW - Debt KW - Debts, Public KW - Economic & financial crises & disasters KW - Economic sectors KW - Economics of specific sectors KW - Economics KW - Economics: General KW - Finance KW - Financial crises KW - Financial services KW - Fiscal Policy KW - Fiscal policy KW - Fiscal stance KW - Foreign Exchange KW - Informal Economy KW - Informal sector KW - Interest rates KW - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects KW - Macroeconomics KW - National Budget KW - Public debt KW - Public finance & taxation KW - Public Finance KW - Public financial management (PFM) KW - Real interest rates KW - Sovereign Debt KW - Underground Econom KW - United States UR - https://www.unicat.be/uniCat?func=search&query=sysid:101237703 AB - We show that fiscal policies reflecting a primary balance response to higher debt in line with historic experience would significantly increase the likelihood of reaching the debt targets of the U.S. administration in the medium term. Deficits and debt are higher under current budgetary proposals and IMF projections for real activity and interest rates, which do not include a reaction of policies to rising primary deficits. Under the IMF staff's current economic projections, a primary fiscal adjustment of about 3.5 percent of GDP would be needed to achieve a debt level of about 70 percent of GDP in 2020. ER -