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2020 (27)

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Book
Effects of Macroprudential Policy: Evidence from Over 6,000 Estimates
Authors: --- --- --- ---
Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This paper builds a novel database on the effects of macroprudential policy drawing from 58 empirical studies, comprising over 6,000 results on a wide range of instruments and outcome variables. It encompasses information on statistical significance, standardized magnitudes, and other characteristics of the estimates. Using meta-analysis techniques, the paper estimates average effects to find i) statistically significant effects on credit, but with considerable heterogeneity across instruments; ii) weaker and more imprecise effects on house prices; iii) quantitatively stronger effects in emerging markets and among studies using micro-level data; and iii) statistically significant evidence of leakages and spillovers. Other findings include relatively stronger impacts for tightening than loosening actions and negative effects on economic activity in the near term.


Book
Synergies Between Monetary and Macroprudential Policies in Thailand
Authors: ---
Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model tailored to the Thai economy is used to explore the performance of alternative monetary and macroprudential policy rules when faced with shocks that directly impact the financial cycle. In this context, the model shows that a monetary policy focused on its traditional inflation and output objectives accompanied by a well targeted counter-cyclical macroprudential policy yields better macroeconomic outcomes than a lean-against-the-wind monetary policy rule under a wide range of assumptions.


Book
Drivers of Financial Access: the Role of Macroprudential Policies
Authors: --- --- ---
Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This study analyzes the drivers of the use of formal vs. informal financial services in emerging and developing countries using the 2017 Global FINDEX data. In particular, we investigate whether individuals’ choice of financial services correlates with macro-financial and macro-structural policies and conditions, in addition to individual and country characteristics. We start our analysis on middle and low-income countries, and then zoom in on sub-Saharan Africa, currently the region that most relies on informal financial services, and which has the largest uptake of mobile banking. We find robust evidence of an association between macroprudential policies and individuals’ choice of financial access after controlling for personal and country-level characteristics. In particular, macroprudential policies aimed at controlling credit supply seem to be associated with greater resort to informal financial services compared with formal, bank-based access. This highlights the importance for central bankers and financial sector regulators to consider the potential spillovers of monetary policy and financial stability measures on financial inclusion.


Book
Norway : Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Systemic Risk Oversight and Macroprudential Policy Framework.
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ISBN: 1513553674 Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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While Norway’s institutional arrangement for macroprudential policy is uncommon, the authorities have shown strong willingness to act. The Ministry of Finance (MoF) is the sole macroprudential decision-maker in Norway, which is rare in international comparison. However, Norges Bank and the Finanstilsynet (FSA) play important advisory roles. In recent years, the authorities have taken substantive and wide-ranging macroprudential policy actions in response to growing systemic vulnerabilities—and these seem to have been effective in slowing down some of the riskier trends. The macroprudential policy toolkit is well stocked and actively used.


Book
Republic of Korea : Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Macroprudential Policy Frameworks and Tools.
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ISBN: 1513557157 Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Past experience with financial crises places systemic risk oversight at the core of Korea’s approach to the financial system. The Korean authorities have amassed over a decade of experience with macroprudential policies. They have put in place rigorous and sophisticated processes for risk monitoring. They publish first-rate analysis. And they have actively developed measures to mitigate risks to the financial system—notably from FX exposures, and from household indebtedness—as circumstances have changed. But their system has evolved to be highly complex, which poses challenges for coordination, communication, and transparency; moreover, their toolkit needs to be extended. These areas should be the focus of efforts to strengthen the policy framework.


Book
Effects of Macroprudential Policy: Evidence from Over 6,000 Estimates
Authors: --- --- --- ---
ISBN: 1513545566 Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This paper builds a novel database on the effects of macroprudential policy drawing from 58 empirical studies, comprising over 6,000 results on a wide range of instruments and outcome variables. It encompasses information on statistical significance, standardized magnitudes, and other characteristics of the estimates. Using meta-analysis techniques, the paper estimates average effects to find i) statistically significant effects on credit, but with considerable heterogeneity across instruments; ii) weaker and more imprecise effects on house prices; iii) quantitatively stronger effects in emerging markets and among studies using micro-level data; and iii) statistically significant evidence of leakages and spillovers. Other findings include relatively stronger impacts for tightening than loosening actions and negative effects on economic activity in the near term.


Book
Synergies Between Monetary and Macroprudential Policies in Thailand
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1513548190 Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model tailored to the Thai economy is used to explore the performance of alternative monetary and macroprudential policy rules when faced with shocks that directly impact the financial cycle. In this context, the model shows that a monetary policy focused on its traditional inflation and output objectives accompanied by a well targeted counter-cyclical macroprudential policy yields better macroeconomic outcomes than a lean-against-the-wind monetary policy rule under a wide range of assumptions.


Book
Italy : Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Systemic Risk Oversight Framework and Macroprudential Policy.
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ISBN: 1513552422 Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Macroprudential oversight in Italy combines local elements with the European framework. At a local level, financial stability is a shared responsibility between Banca d’Italia (BdI), which is the national central bank and the prudential authority for banks and other financial institutions, the markets authority, Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa (CONSOB), the insurance supervisor, Istituto per la Vigilanza Sulle Assicurazioni (IVASS), and the pension funds supervisor, Commissione di Vigilanza sui Fondi Pensione (COVIP).2 Each authority exercises its responsibility within a combination of sectoral and activity boundaries and the BdI plays a leading role in surveillance and coordination. Within the European framework, the BdI is both the national competent authority and the designated authority for the macroprudential tools considered under the Capital Requirements Regulation (CRR) and the Capital Requirements Directive IV (CRD IV), which are implemented and activated following the processes described in these regulatory texts and the guidelines provided by the European Central Bank (ECB) – within the competences assigned to it by the SSM Regulation - and the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB). The ubiquitous role of the BdI on both fronts eases the challenges posed by the coexistence of these two frameworks.


Book
Drivers of Financial Access: the Role of Macroprudential Policies
Authors: --- --- ---
ISBN: 1513547526 Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This study analyzes the drivers of the use of formal vs. informal financial services in emerging and developing countries using the 2017 Global FINDEX data. In particular, we investigate whether individuals’ choice of financial services correlates with macro-financial and macro-structural policies and conditions, in addition to individual and country characteristics. We start our analysis on middle and low-income countries, and then zoom in on sub-Saharan Africa, currently the region that most relies on informal financial services, and which has the largest uptake of mobile banking. We find robust evidence of an association between macroprudential policies and individuals’ choice of financial access after controlling for personal and country-level characteristics. In particular, macroprudential policies aimed at controlling credit supply seem to be associated with greater resort to informal financial services compared with formal, bank-based access. This highlights the importance for central bankers and financial sector regulators to consider the potential spillovers of monetary policy and financial stability measures on financial inclusion.


Book
Leaning Against the Wind: A Cost-Benefit Analysis for an Integrated Policy Framework
Authors: --- --- ---
Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper takes a new approach to assess the costs and benefits of using different policy tools—macroprudential, monetary, foreign exchange interventions, and capital flow management—in response to changes in financial conditions. The approach evaluates net benefits of policies using quadratic loss functions, estimating policy effects on the full distribution of future output growth and inflation with quantile regressions. Tightening macroprudential policy dampens downside risks to growth stemming from loose financial conditions, and is beneficial in net terms. By contrast, tightening monetary policy entails net losses, calling for caution in the use of monetary policy to “lean against the wind.” These findings hold when policies are used in response to easing global financial conditions. Buying foreign-exchange or tightening capital controls has small net benefits.

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