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This paper looks at how countries have mobilized additional resources for education and assesses their impact on access and learning outcomes, using the World Bank's new Learning-Adjusted Years of Schooling measure. The paper shows that global spending on education has risen significantly over the past two decades, although spending as a share of gross domestic product has remained relatively unchanged, at about 4.5 percent. However, global trends mask large differences across regions and country income groups. For example, low-income countries recorded the largest increases in terms of the share of GDP spent on education, but the absolute amount they devoted to education remained low compared to other countries. Economic growth has been the main driver of increases in public education spending. Yet, countries that achieved the largest and most rapid spending increases did this through a combination of increases in overall government revenues, a greater prioritization of education in the government budget as well as healthy economic growth. Increases in public education spending did not generally result in major improvements in average education outcomes. Using the available data, the paper shows that a doubling of government spending per child led to an increase in learning-adjusted years of schooling of only half a year. Preliminary findings also show that countries with lower efficiency and spending are expected to get the most from increases in spending in improved education outcomes. The paper concludes by outlining an approach that allows countries to assess their potential for increasing education funding and the expected effects on their education outcomes, based on benchmarks drawing from the data of comparable countries. It also underscores the urgent need to improve data on public education spending and education outcomes, to extend this analysis to cover a wider set of countries and increase the robustness of country-level benchmarks.
Economic Growth --- Economic Theory and Research --- Education --- Education Finance --- Education Outcomes --- Educational Sciences --- Fiscal Space --- Industrial Economics --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Primary Education --- Public Education Spending --- Public Sector Development --- Secondary Education
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This paper discusses how countries vulnerable to natural disasters can reduce the associated human and economic cost. Building on earlier work by IMF staff, the paper views disaster risk management through the lens of a three-pillar strategy for building structural, financial, and post-disaster (including social) resilience. A coherent disaster resilience strategy, based on a diagnostic of risks and cost-effective responses, can provide a road map for how to tackle disaster related vulnerabilities. It can also help mobilize much-needed support from the international community.
Disasters --- Disaster relief --- Risk assessment. --- Actuarial Studies --- Climate change --- Climate --- Climatic changes --- Disaster aid --- Environment --- Environmental Economics --- Exports and Imports --- Financial institutions --- Fiscal Policy --- Fiscal policy --- Fiscal space --- Foreign Aid --- Foreign aid --- Global Warming --- Insurance & actuarial studies --- Insurance Companies --- Insurance --- International economics --- International relief --- Macro-fiscal framework --- Macroeconomics --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Natural Disasters --- Natural disasters --- Dominica
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We explore the extent to which macroeconomic policies, structural policies, and institutions can mitigate the negative relationship between temperature shocks and output in countries with warm climates. Empirical evidence and simulations of a dynamic general equilibrium model reveal that good policies can help countries cope with negative weather shocks to some extent. However, none of the adaptive policies we consider can fully eliminate the large aggregate output losses that countries with hot climates experience due to rising temperatures. Only curbing greenhouse gas emissions—which would mitigate further global warming—could limit the adverse macroeconomic consequences of weather shocks in a long-lasting way.
Infrastructure --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Environmental Economics --- Environmental Conservation and Protection --- Environmental Economics: Government Policy --- Climate --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Global Warming --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Fiscal Policy --- Climate change --- Public finance & taxation --- Public debt --- Structural policies --- Fiscal space --- Environment --- Macrostructural analysis --- National accounts --- Greenhouse gas emissions --- Climatic changes --- Debts, Public --- Saving and investment --- Fiscal policy --- Greenhouse gases --- United States
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Pacific island countries (PICs) are vulnerable severe natural disasters, especially cyclones, inflicting large losses on their economies. In the aftermath of disasters, PIC governments face revenue losses and spending pressures to address post-disaster relief and recovery efforts. This paper estimates the effects of severe natural disasters on fiscal revenues and expenditure in PICs. These are combined with information on the frequency of large disasters to calculate the rate of budgetary savings needed to build appropriate fiscal buffers. Fiscal buffers provide self-insurance against natural disaster shocks and facilitate quick disbursement for recovery and relief efforts, and protection of spending on essential services and infrastructure. The estimates can provide a benchmark for policymakers, and should be adjusted to take into account other sources of financing, as well as budget risks from less severe as well as more frequent disasters.
Budgeting --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Natural Disasters --- National Budget --- Budget Systems --- Climate --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Global Warming --- Environmental Economics: Government Policy --- Fiscal Policy --- Foreign Aid --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Natural disasters --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Budgeting & financial management --- Fiscal space --- Disaster aid --- Expenditure --- Budget planning and preparation --- Environment --- Fiscal policy --- Foreign aid --- Public financial management (PFM) --- International relief --- Expenditures, Public --- Budget --- Vanuatu
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Weak growth and underlying structural vulnerabilities persist in both Curaçao and Sint Maarten. Worsened macroeconomic conditions—reflecting the spillovers from one of Curaçao’s largest trading partners and the devastation from Hurricanes Irma and Maria in Sint Maarten—make the need for policy adjustment and structural reforms aimed at ensuring fiscal sustainability, enhancing competitiveness, strengthening investor confidence, and developing capacity more urgent.
Economic forecasting --- Financial risk management --- Economic development --- Risk management --- Economics --- Forecasting --- Economic indicators --- Development, Economic --- Economic growth --- Growth, Economic --- Economic policy --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Development economics --- Resource curse --- Budgeting --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Statistics --- Business and Financial --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Fiscal Policy --- National Budget --- Budget Systems --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Public finance & taxation --- Budgeting & financial management --- Financial services law & regulation --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Public debt --- Fiscal stance --- Budget planning and preparation --- Financial regulation and supervision --- Revenue administration --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Fiscal space --- Fiscal policy --- Debts, Public --- Budget --- Financial services industry --- Law and legislation --- Revenue --- Curaçao, Kingdom of the Netherlands
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