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Disagreement about Future Inflation: Understanding the Benefits of Inflation Targeting and Transparency
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ISBN: 1484344839 1484344804 Year: 2018 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

We estimate the determinants of disagreement about future inflation in a large and diverse sample of countries, focusing on the role of monetary policy frameworks. We offer novel insights that allow us to reconcile mixed findings in the literature on the benefits of inflation targeting regimes and central bank transparency. The reduction in disagreement that follows the adoption of inflation targeting is entirely due to increased central bank transparency. Since the benefits of increased transparency are non-linear, the gains from inflation targeting adoption have accrued mainly to countries that started from a low level of transparency. These have tended to be developing countries.


Book
Central Banks, Democratic States and Financial Power
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ISBN: 1108657001 1108592619 1316402673 1107122031 1107552346 9781108657006 9781108592611 9781316402672 Year: 2018 Publisher: Cambridge, England : Cambridge University Press,

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When the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England purchased bank and state debt during the 2007-2008 crisis, it became apparent that, when technically divorced from fiscal policy, monetary policy cannot revive but only prevent economic activity deteriorating further. Pixley explains how conflicting social forces shape the diverse, complex relations of central banks to the money production of democracies and the immense money creation by capitalist banking. Central banks are never politically neutral and, despite unfair demands, are unable to prevent collapses to debt deflation or credit/asset inflation. They can produce debilitating depressions but not the recoveries desired in democracies and unwanted by capitalist banks or war finance logics. Drawing on economic sociology and economic histories, this book will appeal to informed readers interested in studying democracies, banks and central banking's ambivalent positions, via comparative and distributive perspectives.


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Sveriges Riksbank and the history of central banking
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 9781107193109 1107193109 9781108140430 1108140602 1108140432 1108141234 Year: 2018 Publisher: Cambridge Cambridge University Press

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Written in celebration of its 350th anniversary in 2018, this book details the history of the central bank of Sweden, Sveriges Riksbank, as presented by Klas Fregert. It relates the bank's history to the development of other major central banks around the world. Chapters are written by some of the more prominent scholars in the field of monetary economics and economic history. These chapters include an analysis of the Bank of England written by Charles Goodhart; the evolution of banking in America, written by Barry Eichengreen; a first account of the People's Bank of China, written by Franklin Allen, Xian Gu, and Jun Qian; as well as a chapter about the brief but important history of the European Central Bank, written by Otmar Issing.


Book
Taming Japan's Deflation : The Debate over Unconventional Monetary Policy
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ISBN: 1501728180 9781501728181 1501728172 1501728199 Year: 2018 Publisher: Ithaca, NY : Cornell University Press,

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Bolder economic policy could have addressed the persistent bouts of deflation in post-bubble Japan, write Gene Park, Saori N. Katada, Giacomo Chiozza, and Yoshiko Kojo in Taming Japan's Deflation. Despite warnings from economists, intense political pressure, and well-articulated unconventional policy options to address this problem, Japan's central bank, the Bank of Japan (BOJ), resisted taking the bold actions that the authors believe would have significantly helped.With Prime Minister Abe Shinzo's return to power, Japan finally shifted course at the start of 2013 with the launch of Abenomics-an economic agenda to reflate the economy-and Abe's appointment of new leadership at the BOJ. As Taming Japan's Deflation shows, the BOJ's resistance to experimenting with bolder policy stemmed from entrenched policy ideas that were hostile to activist monetary policy. The authors explain how these policy ideas evolved over the course of the BOJ's long history and gained dominance because of the closed nature of the broader policy network.The explanatory power of policy ideas and networks suggests a basic inadequacy in the dominant framework for analysis ofthe politics of monetary policy derived from the literature on central bank independence. This approach privileges the interaction between political principals and their supposed agents, central bankers; but Taming Japan's Deflation shows clearly that central bankers' views, shaped by ideas and institutions, can be decisive in determining monetary policy. Through a combination of institutional analysis, quantitative empirical tests, in-depth case studies, and structured comparison of Japan with other countries, the authors show that, ultimately, the decision to adopt aggressive monetary policy depends largely on the bankers' established policy ideas and policy network.


Book
Flexible Credit Line - Operational Guidance Note.
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1498309682 Year: 2018 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This note provides general guidance on the use of the Flexible Credit Line (FCL). After an overview of the instrument, explaining its specific nature, the operational issues are grouped into three areas: • an outline of the process and specific steps that need to be followed if a member expresses interest in an arrangement; • guidance on determining qualification of a member; and • a how-to guide for determining appropriate access levels. The note is an aid to the implementation of the policy and its underlying principles. If there is any instance in which a provision of the guidance note or its implementation conflicts with Board policy, Board policy prevails. It will be revised as needed, for example following relevant policy reviews.


Book
Estimating the Demand for Reserve Assets Across Diverse Groups
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1484346807 1484346777 Year: 2018 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper takes a fresh look at the determinants of reserves holding with the aim of highlighting similarities and differences in the motives for holding reserves among emerging markets (EMs), advanced economies (AEs), and low-income countries (LICs). We apply two panel estimation techniques: fixed effects (FE) and common correlated effects pooled mean group (CCEPMG). FE regression results suggest that precautionary savings motives, both current account- and capital account-related, are generally the most important determinants of reserves holding across country groups and that their importance has increased for AEs and LICs since the global financial crisis while receding for EMs. Mercantilist motives matter mostly for EMs. Intertemporal motives have been gaining importance everywhere over time. The CCEPMG results confirm the importance of precautionary motives and suggest that current account motives matter only for EMs and LICs and capital account motives matter for all groups while being more important for EMs in both the shortand long runs. The CCEPMG results also point to the importance of taking into account unobserved common factors that affect coefficient estimates and the dynamic process through which reserves adjust to changes. At about 0.6, the speed of adjustment to the long-run equilibrium implies that more than half of the gap between actual and desired reserve holdings is closed within a year.


Book
Central Bank Reserve Management and International Financial Stability—Some Post-Crisis Reflections
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ISBN: 1484342771 1484345711 Year: 2018 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Motivated by the tension first revealed during the global financial crisis between the domestic and international financial stability obligations of central bank reserve managers, this paper offers some reflections along four main lines. First, the paper highlights how official reserve management has evolved to mirror important aspects of private institutional investor behavior over time, and addresses the policy relevance of this convergence. Second, evidence is documented of procyclical portfolio behavior by reserve managers during the crisis, which added to the stabilization burden shouldered by central banks in reserve currency-issuing countries. Third, in appraising the evolution of related vulnerabilities since the crisis, the paper finds grounds for both cautious optimism and lingering concern, the balance of which points to an uncertain future resolution. Fourth, some potential remedies are presented to help dampen the procyclical impulses of reserve managers in future periods of international financial turbulence.


Book
Uganda : Technical Assistance Report-Monetary and Foreign Exchange Operations, Recapitalization, and Act Revision.
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ISBN: 1484337840 1484337824 Year: 2018 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This Technical Assistance Report discusses the findings and recommendations made by the IMF mission regarding monetary and foreign exchange operations in Uganda, Bank of Uganda (BOU) recapitalization, and Bank of Uganda Act revision. The presence of sizable precautionary and involuntary reserves and excessive short-end volatility has weakened the transmission mechanism in Uganda. The key challenge remains to enhance monetary and fiscal policy coordination and to ensure that institutional and operational arrangements are robust and conducive to efficient monetary operations framework. The BOU should raise the effectiveness of the monetary and foreign exchange operations framework. To foster further market development there is need to anchor short-term interest rates by using various fine-tuning instruments to ensure improved operational efficiency and strengthen transmission of policy signals across the curve.


Book
China’s Monetary Policy Communication: Frameworks, Impact, and Recommendations
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1484385950 1484385918 Year: 2018 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Financial markets are eager for any signal of monetary policy from the People’s Bank of China (PBC). The importance of effective monetary policy communication will only increase as China continues to liberalize its financial system and open its economy. This paper discusses the country’s unique institutional setup and empirically analyzes the impact on financial markets of the PBC’s main communication channels, including a novel communication channel. The results suggest that there has been significant progress but that PBC communication is still evolving toward the level of other major economies. The paper recommends medium-term policy reforms and reforms that can be adopted quickly.


Book
An Index for Transparency for Inflation-Targeting Central Banks: Application to the Czech National Bank
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
ISBN: 1484379535 1484379500 Year: 2018 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper develops a new central bank transparency index for inflation-targeting central banks (CBT-IT index). It applies the CBT-IT index to the Czech National Bank (CNB), one of the most transparent inflation-targeting central banks. The CNB has invested heavily in developing a Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) to implement a full-fledged inflation-forecast-targeting (IFT) regime. The components of CBT-IT index include measures of transparency about monetary policy objectives, the FPAS designed to support IFT, and the monetary policymaking process. For the CNB, all three components have shown substantial improvements over time but a few gaps remain. The CNB is currently working on eliminating some of these gaps.

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