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This paper discusses interlinkages between Poland and the euro zone using a simple and agnostic econometric approach. Specifically, we estimate a trend-cycle VAR model using data for real and nominal variables, imposing powerful but uncontroversial assumptions that allow us to identify how external factors affect the evolution of business cycles in Poland in the period 1999-2012. Our results suggest that developments in the euro zone can explain about 50 percent of poland’s output and interest rate business cycle variance and about 25 percent of the variance of inflation.

Business cycles --- Economic cycles --- Economic fluctuations --- Cycles --- Econometric models. --- Poland --- Poyln --- Polska Rzeczpospolita Ludowa --- Polʹsha --- P.N.R. --- P.R.L. --- Pologne --- Polish Commonwealth --- Polonia --- Warsaw (Duchy) --- Polska --- Polsko --- T︠S︡arstvo Polʹskoe --- Królestwo Polskie --- Polʹskai︠a︡ Narodnai︠a︡ Respublika --- PNR --- PRL --- Poljska --- Lehastan --- Polin --- Būlūniyā --- Polonyah --- République populaire de Pologne --- Polen --- Ppolsŭkka --- Polish People's Republic --- Republic of Poland --- Poland (Territory under German occupation, 1939-1945) --- Generalgouvernement (Poland) --- Generalne Gubernatorstwo (Poland) --- General Government (Poland) --- Heneralʹna hubernii︠a︡ (Poland) --- Rzeczpospolita Polska --- Polish Republic --- Congress Kingdom of Poland --- Congress Poland --- Królestwo Kongresowe Polskie --- Kongresówka --- Kingdom of Poland --- Lahistān --- لهستان --- Polandia --- Полшэ --- Polshė --- Pole --- Republiek van Pole --- Republik Pole --- Polaland --- Polisce Cynewise --- Полша --- Полониа --- بولندا --- Būlandā --- Polóña --- Tavakuairetã Polóña --- Польша --- Puluña --- Ripublika Puluña --- Polşa --- Polşa Respublikası --- Pulandia --- Ripublik Pulandia --- Pho-lân --- Pho-lân Kiōng-hô-kok --- Польшча --- Polʹshcha --- Рэспубліка Польшча --- Rėspublika Polʹshcha --- Polonya --- Република Полша --- Republika Polsha --- Poin --- Republika Poljska --- Польшо --- Polʹsho --- Bu̇gėdė Naĭramdakha Polʹsho Ulas --- Polská republika --- Polaki --- Gwlad Pwyl --- Gweriniaeth Gwlad Pwyl --- Republikken Polen --- Republik Polen --- Poola --- Poola Vabariik --- Πολωνία --- Pulógna --- Польша Мастор --- Polʹsha Mastor --- República de Polonia --- Pollando --- Respubliko Pollando --- Repúbrica de Poloña --- Poloniako Errepublika --- Pólland --- République de Pologne --- Poalen --- Poloonya --- Polonie --- An Pholainn --- Pholainn --- Poblacht na Polainne --- Yn Pholynn --- Pholynn --- Pobblaght ny Polynn --- A' Phòlainn --- Poblachd na Pòlainn --- Borandi --- Pô-làn --- Польшин Орн --- Polʹshin Orn --- 폴란드 --- P'ollandŭ --- Pōlani --- Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth --- Crown of the Kingdom of Poland and the Grand Duchy of Lithuania --- Commonwealth of Poland --- Lehastani Hanrapetutʻyun --- Польшæ --- Polʹshæ --- Польшæйы Республикæ --- Polʹshæĭy Respublikæ --- IPoland --- IPolandi --- Lýðveldið Pólland --- Repubblica di Polonia --- פולין --- רפובליקת פולין --- Republiḳat Polin --- Poleni --- Kunngiitsuuffik Poleni --- Pòlskô Repùblika --- Poloni --- Polonye --- Polòy --- Puoleja --- Puolejis Republika --- Polija --- Polijas Republika --- Lenkija --- Lenkijos Respublika --- Polsca --- Republica de Polsca --- Pol'šu --- Polskas --- Bupoolo --- Bupolska --- Ripablik kya Bupoolo --- Lengyelország --- Lengyel Köztársaság --- Lithuania (Grand Duchy) --- Foreign economic relations --- Mathematical models. --- Economic conditions --- Statistical methods. --- General Government for Occupied Polish Territories --- Econometrics --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Business Fluctuations --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Monetary Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- Monetary economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Inflation targeting --- Vector autoregression --- Real exchange rates --- Exchange rates --- Monetary policy --- Prices --- Econometric analysis --- Poland, Republic of