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2010 (5)

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Book
Assessing the Risk of Private Sector Debt Overhang in the Baltic Countries
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ISBN: 1462329497 1455227463 1283569566 1455210420 9786613882011 Year: 2010 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

Between 2000 and 2007 nonfinancial private sector credit expanded rapidly in the Baltic countries, resulting in a non-negligible build-up of debt. Could this legacy debt hold back the economic recovery of the region? This paper analyzes the setting in each of the three countries and, with the help of an experimental Debt Overhang Index (DOI), draws tentative conclusions for domestic demand.


Book
Coping with the Global Financial Crisis : Challenges Facing Low-Income Countries
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1455263044 1452796130 1589069293 Year: 2010 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This forthcoming title in the Departmental Paper Series describes the special challenges facing low-income countries as economic growth contracts by an estimated 1.1 percent globally. Coping with the Crisis: Challenges Facing Low-Income Countries provides an assessment of the implications of the financial crisis for low-income countries, evaluates the short-term macroeconomic outlook for these countries, and discusses the policy challenges they face. Chapters cover the outlook for global economic growth and commodity prices, an overview of how low-income countries have been affected, fiscal policy, monetary and exchange rate policy responses, potential external financing needs and how the international community, including the IMF, can help countries meet them. The challenges ahead for low-income countries are delineated, including debt vulnerabilities and the need for countries to develop well-regulated local capital markets and banking systems, as well as enhanced public sector efficiency.


Book
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 57, No. 1.
Author:
ISBN: 1462368344 1451982879 Year: 2010 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Do highly indebted countries suffer from a debt overhang? Can debt relief foster their growth rates? To answer these important questions, this article looks at how the debt-growth relation varies with indebtedness levels, as well as with the quality of policies and institutions, in a panel of developing countries. The main findings are that, in countries with good policies and institutions, there is evidence of debt overhang when the net present value of debt rises above 20–25 percent of GDP; however, debt becomes irrelevant above 70–80 percent. In countries with bad policies and institutions, thresholds appear to be lower, but the evidence of debt overhang is weaker and we cannot rule out that debt is always irrelevant. Indeed, in such countries, as well as in countries with high indebtedness levels, investment does not depend on debt levels. The analysis suggests that not all countries are likely to profit from debt relief, and thus that a one-size-fits-all debt relief approach might not be the most appropriate one.


Book
Navigating the New Normal in Industrial Countries.
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1455271411 1455233064 Year: 2010 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper discusses about the fact that longer the recognition problems persist, the greater the risk of continued “active inertia” and disappointing outcomes. The possibility of policy mistakes and business accidents will increase further, it will become harder for industrial country governments to convince their citizenry (as well as decision makers in emerging economies) to participate fully in the formulation and implementation of the required solutions, and multilateral institutions will not be able to fill the growing void at the core of the international system. The innovative financial instruments were potent in lowering barriers to entry to many markets, including important segments of the US housing market. As a result, too many households purchased homes that they could not afford, using exotic mortgages they did not fully understand, and too many small companies took on debt they could not sustain. Prior to the crisis, key industrial countries had embarked upon a multiyear, serial contamination of balance sheets.


Book
Democratic Republic of the Congo : Staff Report for the 2009 Article IV Consultation, Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility, and Request for Additional Interim Assistance Under the Enhanced Initiative for Heavily Indebted Poor Countries.
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ISBN: 1462318185 1452793891 1282847007 9786612847004 1455203424 Year: 2010 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper discusses a Request from Congo for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) program. Growth in Congo in 2008 was strong, but weakened by the onset of the global financial crisis during the second half of the year that resulted in a deterioration of the country’s terms of trade and large job losses in the mining sector. Macroeconomic policies for the rest of 2009 and 2010 aim at reducing inflation while mitigating the impact of the global financial sector on the economy.

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