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Between 2000 and 2007 nonfinancial private sector credit expanded rapidly in the Baltic countries, resulting in a non-negligible build-up of debt. Could this legacy debt hold back the economic recovery of the region? This paper analyzes the setting in each of the three countries and, with the help of an experimental Debt Overhang Index (DOI), draws tentative conclusions for domestic demand.
Accounting --- Corporate Finance --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Corporate Finance and Governance: General --- Public Administration --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- International economics --- Ownership & organization of enterprises --- Financial reporting, financial statements --- Debt burden --- Consumption --- Income --- Corporate sector --- Financial statements --- Debts, External --- Economics --- Business enterprises --- Finance, Public --- Estonia, Republic of --- Credit --- Credit control
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This forthcoming title in the Departmental Paper Series describes the special challenges facing low-income countries as economic growth contracts by an estimated 1.1 percent globally. Coping with the Crisis: Challenges Facing Low-Income Countries provides an assessment of the implications of the financial crisis for low-income countries, evaluates the short-term macroeconomic outlook for these countries, and discusses the policy challenges they face. Chapters cover the outlook for global economic growth and commodity prices, an overview of how low-income countries have been affected, fiscal policy, monetary and exchange rate policy responses, potential external financing needs and how the international community, including the IMF, can help countries meet them. The challenges ahead for low-income countries are delineated, including debt vulnerabilities and the need for countries to develop well-regulated local capital markets and banking systems, as well as enhanced public sector efficiency.
Financial crises --- Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009. --- Fiscal policy --- Economic forecasting --- Global Economic Crisis, 2008-2009 --- Subprime Mortgage Crisis, 2008-2009 --- Exports and Imports --- Financial Risk Management --- Macroeconomics --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Commodity Markets --- Financial Crises --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- International economics --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Finance --- Debt sustainability --- Debt sustainability analysis --- Commodity prices --- Debt burden --- External debt --- Prices --- Foreign direct investment --- Balance of payments --- Debts, External --- Investments, Foreign --- Georgia
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Do highly indebted countries suffer from a debt overhang? Can debt relief foster their growth rates? To answer these important questions, this article looks at how the debt-growth relation varies with indebtedness levels, as well as with the quality of policies and institutions, in a panel of developing countries. The main findings are that, in countries with good policies and institutions, there is evidence of debt overhang when the net present value of debt rises above 20–25 percent of GDP; however, debt becomes irrelevant above 70–80 percent. In countries with bad policies and institutions, thresholds appear to be lower, but the evidence of debt overhang is weaker and we cannot rule out that debt is always irrelevant. Indeed, in such countries, as well as in countries with high indebtedness levels, investment does not depend on debt levels. The analysis suggests that not all countries are likely to profit from debt relief, and thus that a one-size-fits-all debt relief approach might not be the most appropriate one.
Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Public Finance --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Fiscal Policy --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Finance --- Banking --- Monetary economics --- Domestic debt --- Capital flows --- Consumption --- Debt burden --- Private capital flows --- Public debt --- Balance of payments --- National accounts --- External debt --- Debts, Public --- Capital movements --- Economics --- Debts, External --- Fiscal policy --- South Africa
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This paper discusses about the fact that longer the recognition problems persist, the greater the risk of continued “active inertia” and disappointing outcomes. The possibility of policy mistakes and business accidents will increase further, it will become harder for industrial country governments to convince their citizenry (as well as decision makers in emerging economies) to participate fully in the formulation and implementation of the required solutions, and multilateral institutions will not be able to fill the growing void at the core of the international system. The innovative financial instruments were potent in lowering barriers to entry to many markets, including important segments of the US housing market. As a result, too many households purchased homes that they could not afford, using exotic mortgages they did not fully understand, and too many small companies took on debt they could not sustain. Prior to the crisis, key industrial countries had embarked upon a multiyear, serial contamination of balance sheets.
Money and Monetary Policy --- International Economics --- Accounting --- Macroeconomics --- Labor --- Exports and Imports --- Public Administration --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Public Enterprises --- Public-Private Enterprises --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Financial Crises --- Financial reporting, financial statements --- Public finance & taxation --- Banking --- Labour --- income economics --- Civil service & public sector --- International economics --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Financial statements --- Public expenditure review --- Unemployment --- Public sector --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Economic sectors --- Debt burden --- External debt --- Global financial crisis of 2008-2009 --- Financial crises --- Finance, Public --- Expenditures, Public --- Banks and banking --- Debts, External --- Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 --- United States --- Income economics
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This paper discusses a Request from Congo for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) program. Growth in Congo in 2008 was strong, but weakened by the onset of the global financial crisis during the second half of the year that resulted in a deterioration of the country’s terms of trade and large job losses in the mining sector. Macroeconomic policies for the rest of 2009 and 2010 aim at reducing inflation while mitigating the impact of the global financial sector on the economy.
Poverty --- Debt relief --- International Monetary Fund --- Congo (Democratic Republic) --- Economic conditions --- Economic policy. --- Politics and government. --- Debt renegotiation --- Debt rescheduling --- Debt restructuring --- Relief, Debt --- Renegotiation, Debt --- Rescheduling, Debt --- Restructuring, Debt --- Debtor and creditor --- Destitution --- Wealth --- Basic needs --- Begging --- Poor --- Subsistence economy --- Law and legislation --- Internationaal monetair fonds --- International monetary fund --- Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Infrastructure --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Financial Risk Management --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Fiscal Policy --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Banking --- Finance --- Social welfare & social services --- External debt --- Public debt --- Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt --- Debt burden --- Expenditure --- Asset and liability management --- Debts, External --- Debts, Public --- Fiscal policy --- Saving and investment --- Banks and banking --- Expenditures, Public --- Congo, Democratic Republic of the
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