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The paper analyzes the forces driving inflation in the new EU10 member countries. A significant part of headline inflation in these countries is due to common factors, such as price level convergence and EU integration. However, idiosyncratic factors have also played a role in the inflation process. These factors are related to the country-specific financial conditions, pass-through from foreign prices, and demand-supply situation in each country, although administered price adjustments and increases of indirect taxes associated with EU accession are also likely to have played a role.
Finance --- Business & Economics --- Money --- Inflation (Finance) --- Fiscal policy --- Tax policy --- Taxation --- Government policy --- Economic policy --- Finance, Public --- Natural rate of unemployment --- Banks and Banking --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Estimation --- Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Economic Integration --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Nominal effective exchange rate --- Energy prices --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Real interest rates --- Financial services --- Interest rates --- Czech Republic
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This paper conducts an assessment of external price competitiveness for Mozambique. A variety of indicators suggest that Mozambique has recently lost external price competitiveness with respect to its major trading partners. Consistent with these indicators, an exchange rate assessment indicates that the metical is overvalued by 26 to 41 percent in real effective terms. If sustained, an overvaluation of this magnitude has the potential to retard economic growth and jeopardize external stability, calling for an adjustment of monetary policy to gradually restore external price competitiveness.
Business & Economics --- Economic History --- Competition --- Prices --- Mozambique --- Economic conditions. --- Commercial products --- Commodity prices --- Justum pretium --- Price theory --- Competition (Economics) --- Competitiveness (Economics) --- Economic competition --- Economic aspects --- Consumption (Economics) --- Cost --- Costs, Industrial --- Money --- Cost and standard of living --- Supply and demand --- Value --- Wages --- Willingness to pay --- Commerce --- Conglomerate corporations --- Covenants not to compete --- Industrial concentration --- Monopolies --- Open price system --- Trusts, Industrial --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Globalization --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Globalization: General --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- International economics --- Real effective exchange rates --- Current account balance --- Nominal effective exchange rate --- Real exchange rates --- Global competitiveness --- Balance of payments --- Mozambique, Republic of
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This paper constructs a coincident indicator for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) area business cycle. The resulting coincident indicator provides a reliable measure of the GCC business cycle; over the last decade, the GCC coincident index and the real GDP growth have moved closely together. Since the indicator is constructed using a small number of common factors, the strong correlation between the indicator and real GDP growth points to a high degree of commonality across GCC economies. The timing and direction of movements in macroeconomic variables are characterized with respect to the coincident indicator. Finally, to obtain a meaningful economic interpretation of the latent factors, their behavior is compared to the observed economic variables.
Business & Economics --- Economic Theory --- Business cycles. --- Gulf Cooperation Council. --- Economic cycles --- Economic fluctuations --- Gulf Co-operation Council --- Co-operation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf --- States of Gulf Co-operation Council --- Golf-Rat --- GCC --- G.C.C. --- Majlis al-Taʻāwun al-Khalījī --- Majlis al-Taʻāwun al-Khalījī al-ʻArabī --- GKR --- Kooperationsrat Arabischer Staaten am Golf --- Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf --- Duwal Majlis al-Khalīj --- Gŏlpʻŭ Hyŏmnyŏk Wiwŏnhoe --- Kŏlpʻŭ Hyŏmnyŏk Wiwŏnhoe --- Majlis al-Taʻāwun li-Duwal al-Khalīj al-ʻArabīyah --- Golfkooperationsrat --- AGCC --- A.G.C.C. --- Duwal Majlis al-Taʻāwun al-Khalījī --- Sovet sotrudnichestva arabskikh gosudarstv Persidskogo zaliva --- SSAGPZ --- Arab Gulf Cooperation Council --- مجلس التعاون الخليجي --- مجلس التعاون لدول الخليج العربية --- Shūrā-yi Hamkārī-i Khalīj-i Fārs --- شوراى همکارى خليج فارس --- Persian Gulf Cooperation Council --- PGCC --- Conseil de coopération du Golfe --- Gulf Cooperative Council --- Cycles --- Consiglio di cooperazione del Golfo --- Ccg --- Econometrics --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Classification Methods --- Cluster Analysis --- Principal Components --- Factor Models --- Economic growth --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Business cycles --- Cyclical indicators --- Consumer prices --- Factor models --- Nominal effective exchange rate --- Prices --- Econometric models --- United States
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