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This paper considers the long-run evolution of the world economy in a model where countries' opportunities to develop depend on their trade with advanced economies. As developing countries become advanced, they further improve trade opportunities for the remaining developing countries. Whether or not the world economy converges to widespread prosperity depends on the population growth differential between developing and advanced economies, the rate at which countries develop, and potentially on initial conditions. A calibration using historical data suggests that the long-run prospects for lagging developing regions, such as Africa, likely hinge on the sufficiently rapid development of China and India.

Developing countries -- Commerce -- Econometric models. --- Economic geography -- Econometric models. --- Electronic books. -- local. --- Commerce --- Business & Economics --- Commerce - General --- Economic geography --- Econometric models. --- Developing countries --- Emerging nations --- Fourth World --- Global South --- LDC's --- Least developed countries --- Less developed countries --- Newly industrialized countries --- Newly industrializing countries --- NICs (Newly industrialized countries) --- Third World --- Underdeveloped areas --- Underdeveloped countries --- Macroeconomics --- Demography --- Emigration and Immigration --- Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts --- Economic Growth of Open Economies --- One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models --- Demographic Economics: General --- International Migration --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Population & demography --- Population & migration geography --- Migration, immigration & emigration --- Population and demographics --- Population growth --- Migration --- Personal income --- Demographic change --- National accounts --- Population --- Emigration and immigration --- Income --- Demographic transition --- China, People's Republic of